Retaining Lockpicks for Lucky Title - Guild Wars Forums

LordGanon · Aug 25, 2009, 11:55 PM // 23:55

I am trying to finish maxing my lucky title by opening lockchest in eye of the north nm. I have a 71% to retain my lockpicks. For a hour when I farm lockchest in CoF most of the time I never break. But after that hour it seems I can't not retain my lockpicks as well. Is there a way to always have a high chance to retain my lockpicks?

zelgadissan · Aug 26, 2009, 12:18 AM // 00:18

NM Ascalonian chests have an insanely high chance of retaining your lockpick; however the synergy with Treasure Hunter is lost as it's not considered a high-end chest. After doing the math though, 71% chance in NM EotN means you should have Treasure Hunter maxed and r5 Lucky, so feel free to disregard.

For values, if you have a 71% chance in NM EotN, you would have 96% chance to keep lockpicks in NM Old Ascalon. I think people usually run in Fort Ranik (I've never chest run there so don't take my word for it).

Raven Wing · Aug 26, 2009, 08:10 AM // 08:10

The chance of keeping/breaking lockpicks is determined by 4 factors: HM/nm, the actual area you are in (only applies to NM), and your luck and treasure hunter rank. The chance remains constant if you dont alter one of these factors. I have made 3 tests myself, each consisting of opening 100 chests in a row and counting. Each time the outcome was within 2 lockpicks. ie. if you have 71% chance you will keep beteween 69 and 73 lockpicks. I have read about research made by others, and it confirms this trend.
Yes you can have lucky strike or opposite and keep 10 in a row or break 5 in a row, but that is not statistically significant, you can rest assured that the stated chance of keeping lockpicks always hold true in average.

I have my maxed treasure hunter title, but I could 450k more lucky points to max that title. And what do I see? Event with double luck coming up

I would advise you to stick to the place outside boreal station, until you die from boredom. Another place you can try is Icedome, with a perma. Its a nice little place that takes about 3mins to run through and there are usually 2-3 chests. Run through, portal out, portal in, run back, repeat until your bag is full

I will surely spend some hours on that.

PS I wouldnt advice the ascalonian chests. Yes you got close to 100% retention rate, but the chests are few and far so you will spend more time per lucky point earned.
And the chest drops is purple items that are never worth more than 25g. In Icedome and eotn you met mostly purple stuff that is worth 100-200g, but sometimes goldies , and a few of them with valuable mods...I have had a forget me not outside Boreal Station. It paid the next 16 lockpicks

Aussie Boy · Aug 26, 2009, 03:52 PM // 15:52

I usualy run old ascalon NM for the lucky/unlucky title but then you miss out on the treasure hunter points this way
also remeber this weekend (28 August) is triple drop rate for keys and lockpicks and get double lucky/unlucky points for using lockpicks on chests!

LordGanon · Aug 28, 2009, 08:39 PM // 20:39

Is there a way to always have a high chance to retain my lockpicks? is the original question

So...best to just raise luck title in the chest found in ascalon since i have already maxed treasure hunter.

EDIT: "And the chest drops is purple items that are never worth more than 25g. In Icedome and eotn you met mostly purple stuff that is worth 100-200g, but sometimes goldies , and a few of them with valuable mods...I have had a forget me not outside Boreal Station. It paid the next 16 lockpicks"

Thx for the info on this and opinion Raven ^^

My New Name · Nov 05, 2009, 02:01 PM // 14:01

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven Wing

The chance of keeping/breaking lockpicks is determined by 4 factors: HM/nm, the actual area you are in (only applies to NM), and your luck and treasure hunter rank. The chance remains constant if you dont alter one of these factors. I have made 3 tests myself, each consisting of opening 100 chests in a row and counting. Each time the outcome was within 2 lockpicks. ie. if you have 71% chance you will keep beteween 69 and 73 lockpicks. I have read about research made by others, and it confirms this trend.
Yes you can have lucky strike or opposite and keep 10 in a row or break 5 in a row, but that is not statistically significant, you can rest assured that the stated chance of keeping lockpicks always hold true in average.

I have my maxed treasure hunter title, but I could 450k more lucky points to max that title. And what do I see? Event with double luck coming up

I would advise you to stick to the place outside boreal station, until you die from boredom. Another place you can try is Icedome, with a perma. Its a nice little place that takes about 3mins to run through and there are usually 2-3 chests. Run through, portal out, portal in, run back, repeat until your bag is full

I will surely spend some hours on that.

PS I wouldnt advice the ascalonian chests. Yes you got close to 100% retention rate, but the chests are few and far so you will spend more time per lucky point earned.
And the chest drops is purple items that are never worth more than 25g. In Icedome and eotn you met mostly purple stuff that is worth 100-200g, but sometimes goldies , and a few of them with valuable mods...I have had a forget me not outside Boreal Station. It paid the next 16 lockpicks

well the 71%=69-73 theory is nice but why the hell did i break 9/12 keys with 55% retain? :O

tasha · Nov 05, 2009, 02:05 PM // 14:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelorin Eshmar

well the 71%=69-73 theory is nice but why the hell did i break 9/12 keys with 55% retain? :O

Read the post you quoted again.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Raven Wing

Yes you can have lucky strike or opposite and keep 10 in a row or break 5 in a row, but that is not statistically significant, you can rest assured that the stated chance of keeping lockpicks always hold true in average.

12 keys isn't a big enough sample to prove that you aren't getting your 55% retention rate. You had bad luck.

Tenebrae · Nov 05, 2009, 02:15 PM // 14:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pelorin Eshmar

well the 71%=69-73 theory is nice but why the hell did i break 9/12 keys with 55% retain? :O

Theres a chinesse guy hacking arenanet that is randomizing ppls % to retain lockpicks. When he is mad , ppl like you and even me ( 68% here ) will break 26 out of 40 locks or more in 1 or 2 days.

Nah , that was a joke sorry . I know how you feel , it happens to me too and it sucks but is bad really bad luck that sometimes happen.

Reformed · Nov 05, 2009, 02:21 PM // 14:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by LordGanon

I am trying to finish maxing my lucky title by opening lockchest in eye of the north nm. I have a 71% to retain my lockpicks. For a hour when I farm lockchest in CoF most of the time I never break. But after that hour it seems I can't not retain my lockpicks as well. Is there a way to always have a high chance to retain my lockpicks?

Variance and yes, run chests in places like Shing Jea Island. In fact there is a great little spot southeast of Minister Cho's Estate. That temple/cave almost always has a chest inside.

imnotyourmother · Nov 05, 2009, 03:22 PM // 15:22

I am one of the ones that ran the Fort Ranik missions for Lucky and Unlucky points.

I did find a better place though but I can not remember the name of it so let me try and explain where it is.

Start from Nonani Acadamy (spelling is bad but this is the outpost) and run towards LA. the Next place you get to - zoning - I think is ASCALON FOOT HILLS.

This is the and I mean THE Smallest explorable area in like..well anywhere that I have ever found. There is a chest there, but only one, every single time.

It is an ASCALONIAN Chest so its 50g and provides the BEST percentage for keeping and a WOPPING amount of unlucky when you do break the pic.

It is best to do this with 2 instances or 2 computers or 2 accounts, you get the idea.

All you need is a run skill that gives 20% or more speed or some skill to prevent you from being knocked down cause of the HYDRA's that are there. Meteor will knock you down.

Just zone from the west (its faster) and run for the chest, it takes about 30-40 seconds for the chest then just have the other toon run out and in again. You can get a chest a minute easy.

Fort ranik used to take me 5 minutes for 2 chests and sometimes I could not find one of the chests but I would kill both HUGE charr groups at the end to keep me in keys by trading in the carvings at festivals.

So ascalon foothills with 2 accounts is the way to go.

My New Name · Nov 05, 2009, 11:29 PM // 23:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tenebrae

Theres a chinesse guy hacking arenanet that is randomizing ppls % to retain lockpicks. When he is mad , ppl like you and even me ( 68% here ) will break 26 out of 40 locks or more in 1 or 2 days.

Nah , that was a joke sorry . I know how you feel , it happens to me too and it sucks but is bad really bad luck that sometimes happen.

oh that makes sense how didn't i think of that? ;P
well i guess only thing to do is do a 100 picks study of my own and report back here with results...

edit:lol had 7 retains in a row :P

Aug 25, 2009, 11:55 PM // 23:55	#1
LordGanon Ascalonian Squire Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Here and There Profession: P/	Retaining Lockpicks for Lucky Title I am trying to finish maxing my lucky title by opening lockchest in eye of the north nm. I have a 71% to retain my lockpicks. For a hour when I farm lockchest in CoF most of the time I never break. But after that hour it seems I can't not retain my lockpicks as well. Is there a way to always have a high chance to retain my lockpicks?

Aug 26, 2009, 12:18 AM // 00:18	#2
zelgadissan Forge Runner Join Date: Feb 2008 Guild: The Warrior Priests [WP] Profession: Me/Rt	NM Ascalonian chests have an insanely high chance of retaining your lockpick; however the synergy with Treasure Hunter is lost as it's not considered a high-end chest. After doing the math though, 71% chance in NM EotN means you should have Treasure Hunter maxed and r5 Lucky, so feel free to disregard. For values, if you have a 71% chance in NM EotN, you would have 96% chance to keep lockpicks in NM Old Ascalon. I think people usually run in Fort Ranik (I've never chest run there so don't take my word for it).

Aug 26, 2009, 08:10 AM // 08:10	#3
Raven Wing Jungle Guide Join Date: Nov 2005 Guild: The Imperial Guards of Istan [TIGI] Profession: N/	The chance of keeping/breaking lockpicks is determined by 4 factors: HM/nm, the actual area you are in (only applies to NM), and your luck and treasure hunter rank. The chance remains constant if you dont alter one of these factors. I have made 3 tests myself, each consisting of opening 100 chests in a row and counting. Each time the outcome was within 2 lockpicks. ie. if you have 71% chance you will keep beteween 69 and 73 lockpicks. I have read about research made by others, and it confirms this trend. Yes you can have lucky strike or opposite and keep 10 in a row or break 5 in a row, but that is not statistically significant, you can rest assured that the stated chance of keeping lockpicks always hold true in average. I have my maxed treasure hunter title, but I could 450k more lucky points to max that title. And what do I see? Event with double luck coming up I would advise you to stick to the place outside boreal station, until you die from boredom. Another place you can try is Icedome, with a perma. Its a nice little place that takes about 3mins to run through and there are usually 2-3 chests. Run through, portal out, portal in, run back, repeat until your bag is full I will surely spend some hours on that. PS I wouldnt advice the ascalonian chests. Yes you got close to 100% retention rate, but the chests are few and far so you will spend more time per lucky point earned. And the chest drops is purple items that are never worth more than 25g. In Icedome and eotn you met mostly purple stuff that is worth 100-200g, but sometimes goldies , and a few of them with valuable mods...I have had a forget me not outside Boreal Station. It paid the next 16 lockpicks

Aug 26, 2009, 03:52 PM // 15:52	#4
Aussie Boy Alcoholic Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Australia Profession: W/	I usualy run old ascalon NM for the lucky/unlucky title but then you miss out on the treasure hunter points this way also remeber this weekend (28 August) is triple drop rate for keys and lockpicks and get double lucky/unlucky points for using lockpicks on chests!

Aug 28, 2009, 08:39 PM // 20:39	#5
LordGanon Ascalonian Squire Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Here and There Profession: P/	Is there a way to always have a high chance to retain my lockpicks? is the original question So...best to just raise luck title in the chest found in ascalon since i have already maxed treasure hunter. EDIT: "And the chest drops is purple items that are never worth more than 25g. In Icedome and eotn you met mostly purple stuff that is worth 100-200g, but sometimes goldies , and a few of them with valuable mods...I have had a forget me not outside Boreal Station. It paid the next 16 lockpicks" Thx for the info on this and opinion Raven ^^

Nov 05, 2009, 03:22 PM // 15:22	#10
imnotyourmother Desert Nomad Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: in a house Guild: The Knitters Guild Profession: W/R	I am one of the ones that ran the Fort Ranik missions for Lucky and Unlucky points. I did find a better place though but I can not remember the name of it so let me try and explain where it is. Start from Nonani Acadamy (spelling is bad but this is the outpost) and run towards LA. the Next place you get to - zoning - I think is ASCALON FOOT HILLS. This is the and I mean THE Smallest explorable area in like..well anywhere that I have ever found. There is a chest there, but only one, every single time. It is an ASCALONIAN Chest so its 50g and provides the BEST percentage for keeping and a WOPPING amount of unlucky when you do break the pic. It is best to do this with 2 instances or 2 computers or 2 accounts, you get the idea. All you need is a run skill that gives 20% or more speed or some skill to prevent you from being knocked down cause of the HYDRA's that are there. Meteor will knock you down. Just zone from the west (its faster) and run for the chest, it takes about 30-40 seconds for the chest then just have the other toon run out and in again. You can get a chest a minute easy. Fort ranik used to take me 5 minutes for 2 chests and sometimes I could not find one of the chests but I would kill both HUGE charr groups at the end to keep me in keys by trading in the carvings at festivals. So ascalon foothills with 2 accounts is the way to go.